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Covid conundrum: First wave but to subside, second not distant


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KOCHI: Crushing all hopes of a respite from the pandemic, the current surge in Covid-19 infections reported from completely different elements of the nation has set alarm bells ringing in Kerala.The confirmed risk of reinfection and affirmation relating to the existence of double mutant virus variants have compounded the dread of the illness. The second wave of infections having already begun in a number of elements of the nation, consultants advise fixed vigil to maintain the pandemic in examine in Kerala. With this clear and current hazard looming giant, the forthcoming elections and the rampant Covid protocol violations in the course of the marketing campaign will be the Achilles’ Heel within the efforts of the state to regulate the unfold of the pandemic, say consultants.

Kerala noticed a peak in Covid-19 circumstances solely in October final 12 months, whereas the remainder of the states had already gone by way of the worst and had been recovering from the affect. “After the height, circumstances had come down in states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Punjab, when Kerala witnessed its peak. Due to this fact, it’s troublesome to foretell when the circumstances may go up within the state. Positively, with elections across the nook and the campaigning happening in full swing, possibly in one other two months, Kerala can anticipate a second wave,” stated Dr Anup R Warrier, Infectious Illness professional.

Two mutated variants — E484Q and L452R — had been detected final week. Up to now, six variants have been detected within the nation— two of them have been reported in Kerala too. “Pacing up the vaccination drive within the state is the one option to include the unfold of the virus. Nonetheless, even in that case, sufferers who recovered from Covid in Might-June final 12 months are actually prone to reinfection. Immunity developed within the physique after Covid is anticipated to final just for 3-6 months,” stated Dr Gopi Kumar P, ENT specialist.

In the meantime, together with the state gearing as much as vaccinate as many as doable, genome sequencing for figuring out doable variants can be in progress. “Hospital beds in a number of cities, together with Pune and Delhi, are getting crammed up. Mutant variants are among the many many causes cited for the surge in circumstances and studying from the sooner pandemics like Spanish flu that the world has skilled, it may be stated that the second wave may very well be worse than the primary,” stated Dr Anup.

In the meantime, the take a look at positivity charge in Kerala, which stood at 3.8 per cent on Monday rose to five.37 on Wednesday, indicating that the scenario may worsen quickly. “We’re continuously monitoring the Covid-19 scenario within the state, anticipating an increase. Our precedence now could be to vaccinate the weak. The brand new variants discovered won’t be simply restricted to the state. Possibilities of unfold of the virus from and to different states, and even nations, are excessive, with all of the financial exercise resuming. Within the case of the mutated viruses, to this point, analysis and research reveal that they’re anticipated to be extra contagious,” stated a well being official.

7 days’ common 
TPR of states
Maharashtra    23 %
Chhattisgarh    9.2 %
Punjab     8.8%
Madhya Pradesh    8.4%
Rajasthan    5.2%
Kerala    4.1 %

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